First, I’m wondering if anyone has any references for volleyball analytics work. I’m having a hard time finding much of anything substantial.
Second, I have a rough idea where I’d like some input. One of the main stats for individuals in volleyball is hitting percentage, which is (kills-errors)/total attacks. It’s a good stat but I never know how to compare a 40% hitter with 400 kills and and 30% hitter with 700 kills.
So my idea is to run a really simple linear regression on total attacks and kills using all players over the last 4 years with >0 kills and >35 sets played in each season. The next step would be to use that to generate a simple expected kills calculation based purely on volume of attack. From there, actual kills-expected kills would be a sort of kills added stat. I’ve gone through the process already and the output seems reasonable for a descriptive stat.
Does this sound passable or am I way off in my thinking here?
Here is the plot of total attacks and kills at the player level
And here is the top 20 in kills added for 16-17 using this approach in big five conferences, which includes eight All-Americans and lots of other really good players.
I have a bunch more ideas but wanted to try to at least start a conversation somewhere and see if I’m even anywhere near a reasonable line of thinking on something as simple as this.