It seems like Expected Goals are going to get a lot more play in mainstream football analysis this season. I love the idea of letting the reader judge a given chance to better grok the idea of the metric.
However, xG values work better in the aggregate, not necessarily judging a single shot. It’s good to tamp down on the “They should have scored there idea”, but perhaps it will go too far.
I’ve long advocated for some sort of error bars on xG, but this may be harder to convey to a general audience. Perhaps generic phrases “1 in 10”, “1 in 4”, “an unlikely shot” could and should be used by announcers, but media will likely put percentages on top of chances in the replays.
What do you think about how the mainstream (and us!) should talk about expected goals as compared to real goals? Also post any other places where it is being mentioned in the media.